Last week, we had the Warriors’ probability of winning an NBA title at about 33%. After thousands of game simulations, we now put those odds at 47%. Here’s a breakdown of each team’s chances:
Golden State – 47.6%
Houston – 25%
Toronto – 8.9%
Philadelphia – 7.2%
Cleveland – 5.1%
Boston – 3.2%
Utah – 2.2%
New Orleans 1.1%
A look at each series:
Toronto Raptors (1) – Cleveland Cavaliers (4)
The most probable outcome here is Toronto beating Cleveland in six or seven games. The Raptors probability of victory is 66.4% with Cleveland at 33.6%.
Boston Celtics (2) – Philadelphia 76ers (3)
With their stars missing, the Celtics are just 28.4% likely to win the series. The 76ers are at 70.6% This series should be over in five or six games.
Houston Rockets (1) – Utah Jazz (5)
Top-seeded Houston are the heavy favorites over Utah with their probability of winning sitting at 80.3% with the Jazz at just 19.7%. The series should go six games.
Golden State Warriors (2) – New Orleans Pelicans (6)
Golden State’s probability of advancing is 93.2%. Despite Golden State winning the first two games, the probability of a sweep is 26% — with the series going six games at 27%.